by Shamin Shah – July 22, 2020 – 20 minute read
Draft details: 12 teams, ½ point PPR, Pick #6
Positions: QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, DEF, K, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN
In this article, I will go over all my picks in detail, highlighting the other possible options that were available and explaining my choice. This should not reflect your rankings or prompt you to choose your players like I did mine. It is designed to get you into the thought process of what you should look for in the draft.
I have also defined what types I think these players are based on their history –
High floor: Players who you likely know what you’re going to get every week and they are considered safe.
Low floor: Risky plays who can bust at any given week
High Ceiling: Risky plays but they can have big weeks at anytime
Low Ceiling: Safer players who usually aren’t going to be on top of any weekly leaderboards
Pick #1: Alvin Kamara (Starting RB) – Med floor, high ceiling
Other choices: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon
While I know Kamara had an off year last year, he still is on the highest scoring potential because of the offense he is in. Also, with Cook’s current hold out situation, there is some risk there. Mixon is a solid pick here too, but because the CIN offense isn’t that great, I think taking Kamara gives you a solid backbone to your team. Mental note to make sure to grab Latavius Murray later, even if its a round too early
Pick #2: Miles Sanders (Starting RB) – Low floor, high ceiling
Other choices: Austin Ekeler, Clyde-Edwards Helaire
There are a lot of options to go with here. I can take Kittle or Kelce at TE, take Galladay, Evans, or Robinson at WR, or take Sanders or Ekeler at RB. Given RBs are being taken off the board early and often, and you find solid WRs throughout the draft, I went with RB here. Between Sanders and Ekeler, I am going with the guy who is on a better offense when the Eagles have healthy WRs and does not have that much of a backup in Boston Scott. Speaking of which, mental note to try to grab Scott later in the draft to protect Sanders.
Pick #3: Mike Evans (Starting WR) – High floor, Med ceiling
Other choices: Adam Theilan, Todd Gurley, Lamar Jackson
I went with Evans because he fell here in the middle of the third round, which I think is solid value. I know there are a lot of weapons in TB, but Evans has been fairly consistent throughout his career. Other options include Adam Theilan who also is a good value here, just not as good as Evans in my opinion. I can also load up on my RB3 in Gurley, but that will leave me very thin at WR going forward. I can take Lamar Jackson here as well, but I would rather secure a WR1 than a QB1.
Pick #4: James Conner (Starting Flex) – Low floor, high ceiling
Other choices: Calvin Ridley, Jonathan Taylor, David Johnson
I took Conner here as he has potential to be a top 5 RB if Steelers get back to their offense with Rothlesberger. Steelers will also be relying on their defense and will want to run the ball early and often. I could’ve secured my WR2 here and grabbed Ridley, but there are a lot of other WR2 options coming up who are true #1s on their team and I think are just as good such as Lockett, McLaurin, Chark, and Parker. I am hoping one of them are still available next round
Pick #5: Tyler Lockett (Starting WR) – High floor, low ceiling
Other choices: TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs
I got in luck here as Lockett stayed on the board. I believe people are overlooking his talent here due to the emergence of DK Metcaf. While that may be true, Wilson continues to rely on Lockett every year and you can bet he will get targets. I would take him over Hilton and Diggs mainly because Hilton has health concerns, and Diggs is going to an offense which will not be throwing the ball as much as Seattle. Also, there are still a lot of QBs on the board such as Prescott, Wilson, Murray, Watson, and Allen. If I want, I can go QB here, but I feel one of them will fall to the next round.
Pick #6: Raheem Mostert (Bench) – High floor, low ceiling
Other choices: DeAndre Swift, Cam Akers, Derrius Guice
There were a lot of directions to go here. I can take Watson or Allen with QB, Engram/Higbee, Henry at TE, or load up on RB or WR. At WR, options include Boyd, Gallup, Edelman, or Jones but there are tons of WRs who I believe are in the same tier as them such as Fuller and Cooks. I believe one of these will be available next round. I believe QB and TE will also drop and even if I miss on them, there are more options I am comfortable with later. So looking at RBs, I could have gone relatively safe with Mostert or taken a risk with Akers, Swift or Guice. Given I only have low/med floors as my starters who have high ceilings, I decided to go the safe route and took Mostert. I would be okay with any of those other RBs, but looking at who I have already is important.
Pick #7: Drew Brees (Starting QB) – High floor, Low ceiling
Other choices: Carson Wentz, Tom Brady
I decided to go QB here because RBs were getting pretty thin and I already have 4 with Murray way down on the rankings at this point, and a lot of the same WRs are still available. I chose Brees because of consistency here. I know what I am going to get, and I am comfortable rolling him out at any given week. Extra bonus points for any receiving TD Kamara gets.
What I could have done differently
10 WRs went between Pick 7 and Pick 8 and now I am stuck reaching for a WR or grabbing a TE when I was probably better off grabbing a WR in Pick 7, and a QB in pick 8. I am not sure if Brees would have stayed on the board, but I could’ve replaced him with Wentz or Brady. So instead of grabbing Deebo Samuel and Wentz, I end up with Brees and Kirk.
Pick #8: Tyler Higbee (Starting TE) – High floor, low ceiling
Other choices: Evan Engram
I decided to go with TE here to complete my mian starting roster. I realize I need a WR but there is a large number of WRs left in the same tier. I like Higbee over Engram because I think the Rams figured something out when they ended the year running the two tight end sets and they will continue to do so. Engram has a lot of competition with a healthy trio of Slayton/Tate/Shepard, competition that he didn’t have last year.
Pick #9: Jamison Crowder (Bench) – High floor, low ceiling
Other choices: Christian Kirk, Mike Williams
This wasn’t the sexiest pick, but Crowder is the #1 on his team and I believe Darnold trusts him. I think the Jets play a lot of games coming back as well. Kirk has a big question mark with Hopkins in the mix at Arizona, and Mike Williams has a new QB who doesn’t really throw down the field much. I could have grabbed RB here too, but my team needs more WRs.
Pick #10: Latavius Murray(Bench) – Low floor, low ceiling
Other choices: None
At this pick, Murray was the next RB off the board and I need to secure my first round pick. Mental note that Boston Scott is coming up
Pick 11: Boston Scott (Bench) – Low floor, low ceiling
Other choices: Tony Pollard
I backed up Miles Sanders here to be safe. It may not be the best idea to grab two handcuffs on my bench, but I have already secured TE and QB, and all the WRs left are very similar. One of them will fall to the next round. This is really minimizing injury risk on my team.
What I could have done differently
Engram is still available here, 3 rounds after I was considering him. I could have grabbed an upside WR like Jeudy or Dionte Johnson instead of Higbee. At this point on my team, I only have three WRs: Evans, Lockett, and Crowder. I better get some upside WRs to end the draft.
Pick 12: Curtis Samuel (Starting DEF) – High floor, Low ceiling
Other choices: Sammy Watkins, Brandon Aiyuk
I thought Samuel was simply the best WR left at this point. He is heavily used in the red zone so in the weeks you need to play him, you are not really relying on a big play, just some red zone opportunities for Carolina.
What I could have done differently
Brady and Stafford are still available in round 12. I could have easily had Deebo Samuel, Dionte Johnson, Engram, and Brady, but ended up with Brees, Higbee, Crowder, and Curtis Samuel. I think the set I did get has more value.
Pick 13: Michael Pittman (Bench) – Low floor, low ceiling
Other choices: Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Allen Lazard
As you can tell, I am scrambling to get some WRs late in the draft as I opted to get QB relatively early. Pittman has the most upside out of the other guys available and is one TY Hilton injury away from blowing up. Because I am scrambling, I cannot draft a solid defense here like the Patriots or the Bills
Pick 14: Harrison Butker (Bench) – High Floor, high ceiling
Other choices: Will Lutz, Greg Zeurlin
I can either get the best kicker in the game that is a sure thing, or a defense I will likely be streaming. I am not particularly sold on any of the defenses left, so I secured my kicker and will grab the best defense available in the next round.
Pick 15: Philadelphia Eagles (Starting Def) – High floor, Low ceiling
Other choice: Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, LA Chargers
Eagles play Redskins week 1. I could have gone with Chargers who play vs. the Bengals.
Here is my team.
Strengths: RB, QB, BN, K
Weaknesses: WR (loaded up with some safe WRs on the bench), TE (If Higbee does not work out, we can start to stream), and DEF (will stream)
What I learned:
- You can wait on QB if you don’t get the top 2 or the tier of players over Josh Allen. Everyone else goes slow off the board and you can always get Brady or Stafford very late in drafts.
- If you don’t get the top 2 TEs, just wait.
- Engram is falling off the draft boards and if you don’t get him, you can always get Fant/Geisecki/Smith.
- If you are streaming defense, wait until the last round and secure a #1 kicker in the second to last round.
- If you don’t have a need for WR or RB late in the draft, use an earlier pick on a top Defense