Mock Draft #3

by Shamin Shah – July 28, 2020 – 15 minute read

Draft details: 12 teams, ½ point PPR, Pick #12

Positions: QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, DEF, K, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN

In this article, I will go over all my picks in detail, highlighting the other possible options that were available and explaining my choice. This should not reflect your rankings or prompt you to choose your players like I did mine. It is designed to get you into the thought process of what you should look for in the draft. 

I have also defined what types I think these players are based on their history –

High floor: Players who you likely know what you’re going to get every week and they are considered safe. 

Low floor: Risky plays who can bust at any given week

High Ceiling: Risky plays but they can have big weeks at anytime

Low Ceiling: Safer players who usually aren’t going to be on top of any weekly leaderboards

Pick #1: Kenyan Drake (Starting RB) – Med floor, high ceiling

Other choices: Nick Chubb

I chose Drake over Chubb here because I believe Drake has a higher ceiling and is playing on a better offense, and Drake does not have another solid RB in the backfield like Chubb does with Hunt.

Pick #2: Tyreek Hill (Starting WR) – Low floor, high ceiling

Other choices: Deandre Hopkins

I took Hill here over Hopkins because of his massive upside and the questions around Hopkins role in Houston. I am sure he will have tons of targets also, but we know what we have with Hill and he can single handedly win me some weeks. I will have to make sure to get some safer WRs later in the draft. I also went with a WR here at the turn instead of a RB to lock up a top 8 at each position. If i didn’t do this, I would end up with really low level WRs.

What I could have done differently

I could have and probably should have gone with Chubb here and taken another WR at my next pick instead of Carson. That could have given be a much higher floor at RB and I could have gotten a solid WR1 who is obviously not as good as Hill but could have likely been a safer pick. So who would you rather have in this scenario, someone like Chubb/Theilen or Hill/Carson?

Pick #3: Chris Carson (Starting RB) – High floor, Med ceiling

Other choices: Melvin Gordon, James Conner, David Johnson

I like Carson’s floor this year. Whenever he has gotten a chance as the RB1, he has shined, and this year shouldn’t be any different. Also, with Penny on the IR, this is Carsons backfield on a run-heavy team. We know Hyde is there as a change of pace back, but I dont see Carson’s role changing much.

Pick #4: James Conner  (Starting Flex) – Low floor, high ceiling

Other choices: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson

I took Conner here as he has potential to be a top 5 RB if Steelers get back to their offense with Rothlesberger. The Steelers will also be relying on their defense and will want to run the ball early and often. Also, with Drake and Carson secured, I can take a little risk with my third RB. I could’ve secured my WR2 here and grabbed Woods, AJ Brown, or Ridley, but there are a lot of other WR2 options coming up who are true #1s on their team and I think are just as good such as Lockett, McLaurin, Chark, and Parker. I am hoping one of them are still available next round

Pick #5: Devante Parker (Starting WR) – High floor, low ceiling

Other choices: Stefon Diggs

My plan backfired a bit and a lot of the good WR’s went off the board in rounds but I am comfortable taking Parker here as a safe WR2. Parker should get a lot of targets on a team that will be coming from behind most games and Fitzpatrick slinging the ball around. Diggs has a lot of question marks going into the season so Parker is the safer pick here.

What I could have done differently:

SInce so many WRs went in round 4 and 5, in hindsight, I could have taken my WR2 in round 4 and then grabbed my third RB in round 5. So who would you rather have, something like AJ Brown/Mostert or Conner/Parker? 

Pick #6: Dak Prescott (Starting QB) – High Floor, Med Ceiling

Other choices: Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray

I usually don’t take QB this early, but getting Prescott in the 6th round is a steal and I foresee a slew of QBs going here. When you are at the turn, you want to try to set the trend rather than react to it. That being said, there were a lot of other directions to go here. I could have gone with another RB in Raheem Mostert here, but I feel pretty good about the RB position. I can also grab a WR here like AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, or Michael Gallup, but I see similar players later in the draft board such as Marquise Brown, Julian Edelman, or Marvin Jones so I will wait and hope one of those come back to me at the next turn. I took the value pick here and I am set up with my QB for the season.

Pick #7: De’andre Swift (BN) – Low floor, High ceiling

Other choices: Cam Akers

My prediction came true as 8 QBs went out of the possible 23 picks. Alternatively, only 3 RBs went off the board so there are some high value RBs left, and some of my safer WRs that I was hoping would stay on the board. I took another risk with Swift here, to round out my RB core over Akers. Swift is on a better offense backing up an often injured Keryonn Johnson. If he gets the starting job, there is major upside. Akers has too many question marks for me, adn Rams did mention they will ride the hot hand on a weekly basis, similar to what SF does.

Pick #9: Marvin Jones (BN) – Med floor, low ceiling

Other choices: Brandin Cooks/Will Fuller

I decided to go with Jones here over a couple receivers from Houston because again, we dont know how that receiving core is going to play out and these two can easily cancel eachother out as the WR2 in Houston. I also wanted to take the safer WR again as Hill is my WR1

Pick #10: Ke’Shawn Vaughn (BN) – Low floor, High ceiling

Other choices: Philip Lindsay, Latavius Murray

This is another shot at a RB that can take over the #1 role in a high powered offense. Bench players should have upside and with Swift and Vaughn, thats exactly what I have. Jones will be the immediate starter in TB, but we are talking about someone who couldn’t even take over Peyton Barber in a backfield last year. TB will give Vaughn a chance to shine, and if he does, that is another strong piece on the bench. 

Pick #10: Anthony Miller (Bench) – Low floor, Med ceiling

Other choices: Mike Williams, Emmanuel Sanders

This was another high upside play with Miller breaking out later last year. Hopefully there is better QB play in Chicago next year. As for Williams, Tyrod Taylor isn’t the best deep ball thrower and that is where Williams shines. Sanders would also be a solid pick here, but at this point, we are not 100% sure he is the #2 in a team that likes to spread the ball around between Thomas, Kamara, Cook, etc. 

Pick 11: Hayden Hurst (Bench) – Med floor, Med ceiling

Other choices: Austin Hooper, Rob Gronkowski

I took Hurst here in hopes that he will step into Hooper’s hole and is on an offense that throws a ton and will have to double team Jones, leaving Ridley and Hurst to eat up targets. The other two TE’s are in timeshares so Hurst seemed to be the best pick here.

Pick 13: Chase Edmonds (BN) – Low floor, Low ceiling

Other choices: Zack Moss

If I didn’t have Drake, I would have likely taken Moss here, however I need to protect my first pick. Edmonds is automatically a RB1 if something happens to Drake.

Pick 13: Buffalo Bills (Starting DEF) – Low floor, low ceiling

Other choices: New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens

Since I feel very comfortable with my WRs and RBs, and I dont need to really backup my QB or TE, I chose to secure a solid defense that starts off the season with Jets, Dolphins, and Rams. You can go with either defense here, but the Patriots and Ravens have tough matchups starting week 2. Also, again I am starting the trend here as a lot of people will be taking Defense or Kicker as their next pick, leaving RBs and WRs more or less the same.

Pick 14: Harrison Butker (Bench) – High Floor, high ceiling

Other choices: Will Lutz, Greg Zeurlin

I can either get the best kicker in the game that is a sure thing, or a WR or RB that I will likely never play. I have handcuffed my RB1, and there aren’t many WRs with major upside left to draft.  

Pick 15: Philadelphia Eagles (Starting Def) – High floor, Low ceiling

Other choice: Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, LA Chargers

Looking at my team, I already have 6 RBs so no need for another RB. I had a choice to either draft a WR or a backup TE and play matchups. Because I already have a number of WRs as well, I went with a backup TE that I can actually play. If my WRs don’t work out the first couple weeks, I can always work the waiver wire, but with Geisecki, he is someone I can play over Hurst in a good matchup. 

Here is my team.

Strengths: RB, QB, BN, K, DEF

Weaknesses: WR (loaded up with some safe WRs on the bench), TE (have two decent options to play matchups), 

What I learned:

  1. When you see value, even if it goes against the strategy you want to employ, go ahead and take the player anyway. I took Prescott because he fell into the 6th round, not because I wanted to take a QB early. 
  2. I should have probably taken one more WR on the bench with high upside, as I only have 4 on my team. Since it was my weaker position, I could have grabbed one or two more. 
  3. Again, it is okay to wait on TE if you don’t get the top 4. After Kittle and Kelce, and to a lesser extent Andrews and Ertz, there are question marks and any of the picks can get hot. 
  4. At the turn, you want to set the trend instead of reacting to it. You don’t want to reach for a player if that position is being taken. You want to grab a player before everyone else gets that position. This way, the players at other positions you were considering will stay on the board.
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