Quarterback Consistency Analysis

by Shamin Shah, June 20, 2020 – 10 minute read

By taking a look at last year’s quarterback results, we can get some indication of how consistent these quarterbacks truly were, and by identifying safe and risky plays, we can decide the best way to draft for 2020. Before we get into the statistics, there are a few things to highlight here.

  1. This analysis is only based on 2019 output, and is no indication that this will happen exactly the same way in 2020
  2. Some players numbers may change drastically due to new teammates or new teams, players health, coaching changes, etc. so use this analysis keeping that in mind
  3. This is how QB1, QB2, and QB3 are defined
    1. QB1 – Top 8 QB, usually got over 20 points and you were glad you started them. Green: Above 40%, Red: Below 20%
    2. QB2 – Top 9-16 QB, usually got between 15-25 points depending on week and their week didn’t really hurt your team much. Green: Above 80%, Red: Below 50%
    3. QB3 or worse – Below 15 points most weeks, and probably made it that much more difficult for your team to win that week. Green: Above 90%, Red: Below 70%

Here are some key takeaways we can see.

  1. You can see why the top 2 picks are Jackson and Maholmes as they hardly had any weeks that killed you You can say the same for Allen, Ryan, Rothlesberger (2018), Tannehill, and Stafford who were all QB2 or better over 75% of their games played. Brees was right at the cusp of these numbers as well. 
  2. Alternatively, there are a few key players that were at least a QB2 only about half the time including some top rated picks such as Wilson, Brady, and Rodgers. 
  3. Wilson, Watson, and Fitzpatrick are capable of huge games but they are not as consistent as some of the other players below on the list. 
  4. Allen and Wentz may not have that many huge games, but they are also very consistent and will likely be safe starts throughout the season.
  5. Murray, and to a lesser degree Lock, are relatively safe as a lot of his scoring picked up later in the season as they got comfortable with the NFL.
  6. Some key players to stay away from based on their 2019 statistics include Mayfield, Trubisky, and Garoppolo
  7. Brady was fairly consistent with far less talent in 2019. 
  8. While Rothlesberger’s 2018 numbers were solid and he was very consistent, take that with a grain of salt given he is coming off a bad injury and is a year older, however his team has not changed much. His defense has gotten a lot better so he may not have to throw as much.
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