RB Consistency Analysis

by Shamin Shah, June 29 2020 – 10 minute read

Below is a table identifying all the RBs likely to be drafted this year and the % of games which they were either weekly RB1 (top 12), RB2 (top 24), RB3 (top 36) or worse. This is based off of only the games they played, in a ½ point PPR format. This only includes Weeks 1-16 of 2019 and does not take week 17 into account as that is not part of most peoples fantasy season.

Items highlighted in green are solid low risk plays (RB2 70%+, RB3 85%+).

Items highlighted in red are higher risk (RB2 below 40%, RB3 below 60%)

Starting RBs on your fantasy team

What we learned

  1. McCaffrey, Elliot, and Cook are about as safe as they come with over 90% RB2 or better. The reason why McCaffrey was better last year was because he was also a RB1 87% of the time while Elliot and Cook were RB1s only about 50% of the time.
  2. Henry, Mixon, and Jacobs were not as safe as the top guys, but you should feel good about them being in your lineup as they do have RB1 potential every week.
  3. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to Drake’s numbers as he changed teams and really wasn’t used properly in Miami. Look for his numbers to improve next year.
  4. In the reduced games Barkeley and Kamara played, while they did not always flirt with the leaderboards too often every week, they were basically always a RB3.
  5. Fournette was a RB3 100% of the games he played. While he seemed to have an off year, he was a safe pick that never really hurt your team on a weekly basis. Chubb, Ekeker, and Bell also were very safe as they hit RB3 or better atleast 90% of the time
  6. David Johnson and Sanders had a lot of bust games, likely because Johnson got taken over by Drake to end the season, and Sanders was not used too much to start the season
  7. Gurley, Carson, Hunt, Mack, and Ingram were also relatively safe although that may change for Mack with the rookie coming to town. Look for the rest to stay pretty safe.
  8. Montgomery. Mostert, and Guice were among the riskiest RBs in terms of weekly scoring. Guice only had a 5 game sample size but he only had 1 week as a RB1, and 1 week as a RB2. All other weeks he was a bust. As for Mostert and Montgomery, they played in all 15 games and they may be just as inconsistent next year.

RBs that will likely be on your bench to start the season

  1. Most of these RBs will be very inconsistent. One great example of this is Murray, who is clearly dependent on an injury to Kamara to be good, and without that injury his numbers would probably look worse. For the games Kamara played, Murray was a RB3 (startable) only 3 out of those 12 games.
  2. White and Lindsay were safe plays throughout the season. I don’t see White’s role changing much as most of his catches out of the backfield seemed to be coach designed plays that should continue. He is a great pick if you have some risk with your earlier RB picks. As for Lindsay, with Gordon coming into town, look for these numbers to go down.
  3. Howard and Brieda in the Miami backfield will also limit their consistency
  4. Jones III and Keryonn Johnson were relatively safe last year, but look for these numbers to also reduce due to the rookies coming into their backfields.
  5. Cohen and Duke Johnson may not be consistent but they have the ability to blow up any week so keep them in your lineup as fill-ins in hopes they have a big week.
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