By Shamin Shah – July 30, 2020 – 15 minute read
Below is a table identifying all the WRs likely to be drafted this year and the % of games which they were either weekly WR1 (top 12), WR2 (top 24), WR3 (top 36) or worse. This is based off of only the games they played, in a ½ point PPR format. This only includes Weeks 1-16 of 2019 and does not take week 17 into account as that is not part of most peoples fantasy season.
Items highlighted in green are solid low risk plays (WR2 70%+, WR3 85%+).
Items highlighted in yellow are higher risk (WR2 below 40%, WR3 below 60%)
What we learned
- McCaffrey, Elliot, and Cook are about as safe as they come with over 90% WR2 or better. The reason why McCaffrey was better last year was because he was also a WR1 87% of the time while Elliot and Cook were WR1s only about 50% of the time.
- Henry, Mixon, and Jacobs were not as safe as the top guys, but you should feel good about them being in your lineup as they do have WR1 potential every week.
- I wouldn’t pay too much attention to Drake’s numbers as he changed teams and really wasn’t used properly in Miami. Look for his numbers to improve next year.
- In the reduced games Barkeley and Kamara played, while they did not always flirt with the leaderboards too often every week, they were basically always a WR3.
- Fournette was a WR3 100% of the games he played. While he seemed to have an off year, he was a safe pick that never really hurt your team on a weekly basis. Chubb, Ekeker, and Bell also were very safe as they hit WR3 or better atleast 90% of the time
- David Johnson and Sanders had a lot of bust games, likely because Johnson got taken over by Drake to end the season, and Sanders was not used too much to start the season
- Gurley, Carson, Hunt, Mack, and Ingram were also relatively safe although that may change for Mack with the rookie coming to town. Look for the rest to stay pretty safe.
- Montgomery. Mostert, and Guice were among the riskiest RBs in terms of weekly scoring. Guice only had a 5 game sample size but he only had 1 week as a WR1, and 1 week as a WR2. All other weeks he was a bust. As for Mostert and Montgomery, they played in all 15 games and they may be just as inconsistent next year.