Wide Receiver Consistency Analysis

By Shamin Shah – July 30, 2020 – 15 minute read

Below is a table identifying all the WRs likely to be drafted this year and the % of games which they were either weekly WR1 (top 12), WR2 (top 24), WR3 (top 36) or worse. This is based off of only the games they played, in a ½ point PPR format. This only includes Weeks 1-16 of 2019 and does not take week 17 into account as that is not part of most peoples fantasy season.

Items highlighted in green are solid low risk plays (WR2 70%+, WR3 85%+).

Items highlighted in yellow are higher risk (WR2 below 40%, WR3 below 60%)

What we learned

  1. McCaffrey, Elliot, and Cook are about as safe as they come with over 90% WR2 or better. The reason why McCaffrey was better last year was because he was also a WR1 87% of the time while Elliot and Cook were WR1s only about 50% of the time.
  2. Henry, Mixon, and Jacobs were not as safe as the top guys, but you should feel good about them being in your lineup as they do have WR1 potential every week.
  3. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to Drake’s numbers as he changed teams and really wasn’t used properly in Miami. Look for his numbers to improve next year.
  4. In the reduced games Barkeley and Kamara played, while they did not always flirt with the leaderboards too often every week, they were basically always a WR3.
  5. Fournette was a WR3 100% of the games he played. While he seemed to have an off year, he was a safe pick that never really hurt your team on a weekly basis. Chubb, Ekeker, and Bell also were very safe as they hit WR3 or better atleast 90% of the time
  6. David Johnson and Sanders had a lot of bust games, likely because Johnson got taken over by Drake to end the season, and Sanders was not used too much to start the season
  7. Gurley, Carson, Hunt, Mack, and Ingram were also relatively safe although that may change for Mack with the rookie coming to town. Look for the rest to stay pretty safe.
  8. Montgomery. Mostert, and Guice were among the riskiest RBs in terms of weekly scoring. Guice only had a 5 game sample size but he only had 1 week as a WR1, and 1 week as a WR2. All other weeks he was a bust. As for Mostert and Montgomery, they played in all 15 games and they may be just as inconsistent next year.
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